I’m going to try something different here and begin to post quick thoughts on each playoff game (< 500 words) the next day. Hopefully you enjoy the updates and daily coverage.

Wednesday May 5
San Antonio at Phoenix – Game 2 (PHX leads 1-0)

For much of game 1, I thought the Spurs just looked old. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire did whatever they wanted that night, pounding the Spurs with the pick and roll – almost impossible to defend when it’s run by players of that caliber. Though San Antonio battled back and showed their trademark grit, it never really seemed like they were going to win that game.

On Wednesday though, the Spurs looked better behind a hot start from Tim Duncan (though it helped that Nash didn’t drop 17 in the first quarter this time) and kept it close the whole way. At the beginning of the fourth quarter even, I thought they were going to steal one in Phoenix. DeJuan Blair made a big defensive play, fronting Amare and stealing a lob entry pass, and then George Hill buried a three in the corner on the next possession to put the Spurs up 80-78.

I tweeted right after that, saying that role players make or break teams in the playoffs and insinuating that the Spurs role guys were going to be the difference. I turned out to be right too, except that it was “Los Suns’” bench players that came up huge. Less than two minutes after the Hill three, Jared Dudley hit one to put Phoenix up 83-80, then was followed later by a Channing Frye three to put the Suns up 88-83 (Goran Dragic and and Leandro Barbosa assisted on the bombs).

Frye’s three splashed down with 7:56 to play and the Spurs would never get closer than four from there on out, as the Suns cruised to a 110-102 win. Though Phoenix has some work to do to close out the series, I think it’s time to reevaluate the Suns.

They’re showing a toughness that I hadn’t seen out of them to this point, and guys like Dudley are the ones bringing that to the table. When Alvin Gentry goes to his bench, there usually isn’t a letdown. Dragic has come into his own this year, Barbosa is always a threat with his speed, Dudley is deadly (sounds good doesn’t it?), and Louis Admunson is a valuable energy guy.

Now, if the Suns are to move on and meet Los Angeles, it seems to me that they would be the team best able to match up with LA – especially with Robin Lopez on the verge of returning. Putting Nash/Richardson/Hill/Amare/Lopez up against the Lakers’ five, with Frye/Dragic/Barbosa/Admunson/Collins off the bench, I think Phoenix could come closer than anyone else in matching LA’s size.

An issue for the Spurs now is the schedule, as they’ll be playing every other day from here on out.
Next Game: 5/7 @ San Antonio (PHX leads 2-0)

 We’re listed at http://dcprosportsreport.com/MockDraft.htm.

April 21, 2010
By Jake Sittler
It is the eve of round 1 of the NFL draft, which hits primetime tomorrow night at 7:30. At this point there are so many rumors flying around that no one is really sure what’s going on, including the insiders and experts. At this point it’s all speculation and bias, so we’ll just throw ours into the mix. Chapple and I have done our best to slot players where it seems logical, even if it differs from what we think a team should do. At least for me, Clausen, Dan Williams, and the OLB class (Kindle, Graham, Hughes) were the hardest to slot.

(And no, this isn’t going to be a mock with three scenarios for each pick in an attempt to make it seem like we knew what was going to happen and to cover up our shoddy analysis - looking at you Todd McShay.)

Quickly, here a couple things that I would love to see happen (but that probably won’t):
-The Niners take an offensive tackle and Mike Iupati with their two first-round picks. It’s not sexy, but they’d instantly have a top O-line for a decade.
-The Lions take Russell Okung with 2nd overall pick. I think Suh will be an All-Pro, but the offense is an OT away from being very dangerous.

1. St. Louis
Jake Sittler: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - The Rams desperately need a franchise quarterback and Bradford can be that guy. He simply can produce a greater impact than anyone else in the draft.
Brian Chapple: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - I’m not sure the Rams are completely sold on Sam Bradford but they have passed on an elite QB the past two drafts. If they don’t draft Bradford, look for them to take Suh then nab Colt McCoy at the top of the second

2. Detroit
Sittler: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska - He’ll be disruptive from day one and an All-Pro before long. Suh is the most dominant player in the draft at any position. The Lions may take a glance at Okung here and I wouldn’t hold it against them, but Suh is just too dominant to pass up.
Chapple: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska - With Stafford, Johnson, Pettigrew, and Jones, this team has a young offensive core to build around. They either need help along the offensive line or anywhere on the defense. Suh falls right into their lap as someone to play alongside Corey Williams up front. This looks like a team that can make some noise in the coming years.

3. Tampa Bay
Sittler: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma – Tampa Bay could go a lot of different ways here, but they see McCoy as an explosive, pocket-collapser in the mold of Warren Sapp.
Chapple: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma - The Bucs had all sorts of problems stopping the run last year, but also failed to generate pressure on the QB. This guys helps on both fronts, giving them a Warren Sapp type playmaker along the defensive line.

4. Washington
Sittler: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St - The Redskins should end up with the perfect situation at the fourth spot, as they can grab the top OT is on the board and protect the McNabb investment. This pick should be a no brainer.
Chapple: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St – The Redskins addressed their QB situation by trading for Donavan McNabb. If I were them, I would still hold on to Jason Campbell because McNabb is one of the least durable QB’s in the league. Their offensive line still isn’t very good so this pick should probably address that area. 

5. Kansas City
Sittler: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - Some have speculated that Charlie Weis will try to land his former QB at Notre Dame in Jimmy Clausen, but the Chiefs wrote Matt Cassel much too big a check last year to do that. Berry is going to provide an instant impact and will be a building block in KC for years.
Chapple: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - The Chiefs started to show some signs of life the last few weeks of the regular season. Key hires in the offseason include Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. Their defense needs help everywhere, but especially a playmaker. They should give this guy free reign to make big plays in the secondary

6. Seattle
Sittler: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma - The Seahawks signed Charlie Whitehurst for a reason and Seattle’s brass certainly seems to think he can be their quarterback of the future. They need to protect him and the versatile Williams is an instant upgrade at either end of an aging line.
Chapple: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma - New coach Pete Carroll has brought new energy to the Seahawks. That new energy won’t necessarily translate to wins unless they do something about their quarterback situation. They might be thinking they can get someone later and this guy is too talented to pass up.

7. Cleveland
Sittler: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame - Mike Holmgren seems to have made it clear that they aren’t sold on Clausen, but I wonder if it’s a smokescreen. Clausen could certainly stand to learn from Jake Delhomme how to carry himself and be leader at the NFL level. Once Clausen has adjusted and picked up the idiosyncrasies of the game, he’s got the skill level to step in and play right away. I’m sure the Browns are entertaining offers for this pick as well, this one could go a number of different ways
Chapple: Joe Haden, CB, Florida - Mike Holmgren took over the personnel decisions for the Browns in the off season That means this pick is probably doing to fix the defense, although their offensive could also use major help as well. The secondary needs the most attention right now. While this guy didn’t run the greatest, he is still a very good corner and will be a star in the league someday.

8. Oakland
Sittler: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa - In this mock, the Raiders will be disappointed that Clausen is off the board, because I firmly believe they’d have taken him if he fell here. Instead, they’ll end up with very good OT, a guy with a consistent motor and mean streak to match.
Chapple: Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa - Let’s be honest: with Al Davis leading the Raiders, anything can happen on draft day. He’ll probably take whoever ran the fastest 40 time. After all, track speed translates well to football speed (See last year’s first round pick). Instead of predicting who they will take, I’ll instead pick who they should take.

9. Buffalo
Sittler: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee - Bills fans may not like to see a DT taken here, but this guy is one of the best on the board and should be able to anchor a defense for years. I was impressed with his size/power/speed ratio at the combine.
Chapple: Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame - This is a team that needs to establish an identity. From the looks of things, they want to play smash mouth football, meaning I doubt they use the 9th pick in the draft on Dez Bryant. They do need a QB however and this guy is about as pro ready as they come.

10. Jacksonville
Sittler: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech - Much has been made about the Jags anemic pass rush (14 sacks all of last year) and they’ll have their pick of ends here. Morgan may not be the flashiest guy, but I think he’ll be an every-down end and the most complete player of this DE class.
Chapple: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech - Outside of getting fans in the stands, the number one priority is at pass rusher. They haven’t had a good track record with DEs in the past, which is one reason they want out of this spot.

11. Denver
Sittler: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St - This pick simply makes too much sense now. They unloaded Brandon Marshall, and can replace him immediately with Bryant, whom I think can be a star. I know that this seems like replacing a problem child with its identical twin, but I’m going to give Bryant the benefit of the doubt since he’s had ample time to learn from his mistakes and hear what people are saying about him.
Chapple: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St - A once promising start fading to disappointment and left this team with a lot of questions. Kyle Orton did fine in his first season with the Broncos, however they did add Brady Quinn in the offseason. With Brandon Marshall gone, they will almost certainly look for a wideout here.

12. Miami
Sittler: Earl Thomas, DB, Texas - I had Dez Bryant here until the Marshall trade, which I think made the Dolphins an AFC Championship contender. I can’t see Parcells wanting to pull the trigger on a guy like Pierre-Paul, and though current FS Chris Clemons is a young player, Thomas is too good to pass up. He’s smooth and really knows how to play the game. A trade down would not surprise anyone.
Chapple: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee - They added Brandon Marshall in a trade, fixing one of their needs this offseason. One thing that still needs fixed is an improved pass rush. Jason Taylor is on his last legs and they desperately need some youth at the DE position. While he is not a DE, he does provide a pretty good pass rush from the DT position.

13. San Francisco
Sittler: Joe Haden, CB, Florida - San Francisco would love a tackle with one of their two first round picks, but they also have a serious need at corner with Nate Clements’ impending move to safety. I’m not intimidated by Haden’s relatively slow 40 time, as I think he has great instincts and simply knows how to play the game.
Chapple: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers - They need so fix some holes on their offensive line. The left side is outstanding but the right side is questionable. This guy can play multiple positions and gives them flexibility along that line.

14. Seattle
Sittler: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson – With their quarterback situation settled and an offensive tackle drafted at #6, the Seahawks can swing for the fences here and end up with the top playmaker in the draft. Spiller is going to impact a game in a number of ways and if the comparisons to Chris Johnson are even partially accurate, Seattle will have themselves a steal here.
Chapple: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida - The Seahawks still need a feared pass rusher for their defense. No one along the front seven really scares you anymore. This guy is an athletic freak and gives Pete Carroll a guy to pressure the QB.

15. New York Giants
Sittler: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama - I think the Giants would be thrilled to see McClain fall to them here and I think it’s highly likely that McClain’s draft slot is the one most affected by the Marshall trade. They could use a pass rusher, but McClain is ready to play now and has the intelligence and intensity to key their defense right away.
Chapple: Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama – This team basically fell apart the last two weeks of the regular season. Part of that had to do with Eli’s injury but that is not all to blame. They were inconsistent on the defensive side of the ball and barely got anything out of their running game. The days of having the best defensive ends in the game are long gone. They struggled with injuries that past 3 years at that position. This pick will add depth and explosiveness.

16. Tennessee
Sittler: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida - Tennessee has to be seeing shades of Jevon Kearse when they look at this kid. He’s incredibly raw, but seems like a good guy who’s willing to work at it.
Chapple: Everson Griffen, DE/OLB, USC - Chris Johnson had an incredible season in his quest towards 2,000 rushing yards. Vince Young played well when given the chance. In order for this team to get over the hump, they need defensive help.

17. San Francisco
Sittler: Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers - The 49ers could address either guard or tackle in this spot, but I think right tackle is a glaring need and they won’t be able to pass up a guy with the potential that Davis has. I don’t agree with the experts who say they should target a pass-rusher, as there is a dearth of them available in this draft and the Niners will find one later.
Chapple: CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson - The biggest playmaker in the draft is still here at pick 17 so I feel the 49ers would scoop him up in a heartbeat if he falls this far.

18. Pittsburgh
Sittler: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho - The Steelers will improve the interior of their offensive line with this pick, and they should have their choice of either Mike Iupati, the top guard in the draft, or Maurkice Pouncey, the top center in the draft. Iupati can play either position, and he’s been compared to Steve Hutchinson.
Chapple: Mike Iupati, G, Idaho - The Steelers have all the talent in the world, but they were bitten by the injury bug last season. It was especially bad on the offensive line, where they lack a lot of depth. They will address that in the draft.

19. Atlanta
Sittler: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas - The Falcons have their pick of two or three solid rush ends, but Kindle is the most intriguing with his size, speed, and length.
Chapple: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas - Michael Turner and Matt Ryan both went down with injuries during the season, which hindered them during the season. They still need help along the defensive front seven if they want to turn the corner in this league.

20. Houston
Sittler: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise St - The Texans have a big need at DB after the release of Dunta Robinson, and the physical Wilson can step in immediately. He’s dangerous as a returner as well, and regarded as a high character guy.
Chapple: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan - The Texans were oh so close to making the playoffs this year, their best season in franchise history. Their offense can hang with anyone but their defense still is a few players away from being a solid unit. A linebacker that could rush the passer would be a great help.

21. Cincinnati
Sittler: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma - I’m convinced that Dez Bryant won’t fall this far; the situation is too perfect in Denver. Gresham is the consolation here, as he stands out as the head of the TE class despite coming off of a major knee injury last season. (For the record, I don’t like this pick but I think it will happen.)
Chapple: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma - The Bengals surprised everyone this year and won their division. Their defense was something to fear this past year, but their offensive had some problems scoring. Something they haven’t had is a pass-catching threat at TE.

22. New England
Sittler: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan - I don’t care that some think he’s undersized; he was incredibly productive at the college level on a bad team and has the quickness, power, and an array of moves that will make him an impact guy right away.
Chapple: Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU - They need an upgraded pass rush to compete with the best in the league. Several potential stars abound in this draft so I guess it’s a take your pick.

23. Green Bay
Sittler: Maurkice Pouncey, C/G, Florida - The Packers need help everywhere along the line, and they’ll probably be tempted by Bruce Campbell or Charles Brown here, but I’m not sure if either of those guys can play right away. Pouncey can play either interior line position.
Chapple: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland - There is loads of potential on this team; they just need some more depth if they want to make a deeper playoff run. Aaron Rodgers got hit way too often last year. Finding a quality offensive tackle would be a big boost.

24. Philadelphia
Sittler: Taylor Mays, S, USC - History says that you can’t teach instincts. History also says that you can’t teach 6’3″, 203 x 4.4 speed either. I think Mays will find a way to impact a game no matter where he plays. He’d be interesting as an Adalius Thomas-like rover.
Chapple: Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida - Michael Vick may not be back, but that is the least of the Eagles concerns. They need to shore up the linebacking corps by adding some depth. What they need is a sure tackler that can boost the middle of this defense.

25. Baltimore
Sittler: Everson Griffen, DE/OLB, USC – The Ravens aren’t especially young on the defensive side of the ball, and Griffen impressed me with his measurables as well as the way he moved in space during change of direction and coverage drills at the combine. He could be a force in Baltimore under the tutelage of so many great defenders, and Baltimore loves to get athletes.
Chapple: Earl Thomas, DB, Texas - Trading for Anquan Boldin eliminated them from taking a WR in the first round. They can go in several directions with this pick. Ed Reed may be close to calling it quits so they might want to find his replacement here.

26. Arizona
Sittler: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri - The hole left by the loss of Karlos Dansby can be filled by Weatherspoon. Weatherspoon should be able to slide inside and hold up at the NFL level. 
Chapple: Brian Price, DT, UCLA - The future of the Cards is somewhat in limbo as Kurt Warner has called it quits. The jury is still out on Matt Leinart as an NFL quarterback I think they will give him a chance, so they won’t be looking in that direction, not this year at least. Depth on the defensive side of the ball makes the most sense with this pick.

27. Dallas
Sittler: Charles Brown, OT, USC - Brown is rising quickly and is a bit of a project, but the Cowboys could still pull the trigger on him and try to develop him quickly enough to start this year. He’s an athlete and has a ton of potential.
Chapple: Kyle Wilson, DB, Boise St - They stopped some critics and played well during December. They got picked apart during the playoffs, due to a still shaky secondary. I think they’re in position to take the highest rated secondary player still on the board.

28. San Diego
Sittler: Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno St - Antoine Cason should be able to slide into Antonio Cromartie’s spot, so the Chargers will improve their running game here. Matthews was extremely productive in college and performed better at the combine than most though he would. Great pick here.
Chapple: Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno St - LT is out in San Diego, paving the road for a back to be taken here. He’s more of a grinder than a speed guy but they already have a speed guy in Darren Sproles.

29. New York Jets
Sittler: Jerry Hughes, OLB, TCU - The Jets, beneficiaries of the Cromartie trade, would love to add a pass rusher to make this defense legitimately scary. I don’t see the addition of Jason Taylor affecting this pick. A great pass rush plus lockdown coverage equals plenty of turnovers and sacks.
Chapple: Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida – The Jets have surprised everyone by advancing to the AFC championship game in Sanchez’s first season. Rex Ryan has constructed this team well. Their defense is outstanding and their offensive line is about as good as they come. They are lacking a dynamite pass rusher. This guy has character issues but is a top 10 talent.

30. Minnesota
Sittler: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama - Minny’s one area of weakness on the defensive side of the ball was at corner, where age and injury were issues all year. Devin McCourty has been a hot name because of his combine performance, but Jackson can actually play the game.
Chapple: Taylor Mays, S, USC - Brett Favre has said that’s it’s “unlikely” he’ll return next season but how many times have we heard that before? Whoever is at QB will have plenty of weapons on offense. This team struggled at times with pass defense however, and they will add some secondary depth in the draft.

31. Indianapolis
Sittler: Roger Saffold, OT, Indiana - I’ve had a DT penciled in here all along, but thinking about the way the Colts normally draft made me reconsider. Bill Polian is an expert at picking out under-the-radar guys who can play immediately in Indy’s scheme. Saffold has been rising as of late but should still be on the board at this point.
Chapple: Jared Odrick, DT, Penn St – The Colts showed some holes in the Super Bowl and they will have to address them in the off season. Their defense still needs work, starting up front in the middle.

32. New Orleans
Sittler: Daryl Washington, OLB, TCU – A great athlete, Washington gives them speed at the second level. The pickup of Alex Brown tells me they won’t be looking DE here.
Chapple: Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri - They played a great game in the Super Bowl and Brees showed why he belongs in the discussions of the best QB’s in the game. They still have some holes on defense they need to fill but this team is going to be good for a long time.

Eastern Conference
Starters
PG Rajon Rondo, Boston
SG Dwyane Wade, Miami
SF LeBron James, Cleveland
PF Chris Bosh, Toronto
C Dwight Howard, Orlando
Reserves
PG Derrick Rose, Chicago
SG Joe Johnson, Atlanta
SF Josh Smith, Atlanta
SF Gerald Wallace, Charlotte
PF David Lee, New York
PF Kevin Garnett, Boston
C Brook Lopez, New Jersey

Western Conference
Starters
PG Steve Nash, Phoenix
SG Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers
SF Carmelo Anthony, Denver
PF Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas
C Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Reserves
PG Chris Paul, New Orleans
PG Deron Williams, Utah
SG Monta Ellis, Golden State
SG Brandon Roy, Portland
SF Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
PF Zach Randolph, Memphis
C Chris Kaman, LA Clippers

Players that just missed the cut for the Eastern Conference were Brandon Jennings and Antawn Jamison. For the West, Amare Stoudemire, Tyreke Evans, and Rudy Gay had the strongest resumes of those left off the ballot.

*This post aided by Zach De La Rocha and Rage Against the Machine
** All stats are from kenpom.com

Bulls on Parade – these guys are leading the pack so far and built for a tournament run
Texas
Breakdown: UT has easily been the most consistent squad all year to this point. While Kentucky (against Miami (OH)) and Kansas (against Memphis, Cornell, and the loss to Tennessee) have had close calls, Texas has handily beaten Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Michigan State. At the beginning of the year, I pegged Texas as my national title favorite because of their deep bench and front line. So far, double-double machines Dexter Pittman and Damion James (plus Gary Johnson) have been arguably the best frontcourt duo in the nation, while Avery Bradley, Justin Mason, J’Covan Brown, Jai Lucas, Dogus Balbay and Jordan Hamilton make up a backcourt that can score and defend.
Texas is stellar defensively – 4^th in defensive efficiency and 3^rd in field goal percentage defense. They also are 15^th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage, which makes up for the fact that they do not shoot the three well – just 34% from deep. 

Kentucky
Breakdown: Kentucky, out of all the teams in the field, has the most chance to improve. This is particularly scary considering that UK is 16-0 and can go eight or nine guys deep. There will be two schools of thought on this UK team: some feel that they’re too young, undisciplined and impulsive to take serious aim at the title, but I see this team potentially becoming a juggernaut come March. John Wall is the best player in the country, without a doubt in my mind, and Demarcus Cousins will only get better. Patrick Patterson is the best supporting character in the nation, while Eric Bledsoe is an x-factor type of guy who can win a game for you.
Statistically, UK is impressive offensively (18^th in offensive efficiency and 15^th in effective FG%) though they don’t shoot the three well and turn it over quite a bit, though that should improve as Wall and Bledsoe get more games under their belt. They are better defensively than you’d think too, ranking near the top 50 in FG% defense. Bottom line, UK may not look like a title contender statistically but they’re that talented – like the UNLV teams of the 90s

Purdue
Breakdown: The Kohl Center is one of the hardest places to play in the nation (just ask Duke), which is why I’m not overly concerned with Purdue’s recent loss on the road. Playing anywhere on the road in the Big Ten is going to be a legitimate challenge, so the Boilers will have a tough road ahead. But they’re built for the grind better than most teams, as they can counter a bad shooting night with the nastiest defensive effort seen in the college game today. They pressure ballhandlers all over the floor (West Virginia struggled to even cross halfcourt at times against Chris Kramer and co.) and JaJuan Johnson is a shot blocking weapon inside. Purdue does lack frontcourt depth behind Johnson and may struggle against extremely athletic teams, plus having PG Lewis Jackson back at year’s end would fill a hole at point for them.
Matt Painter’s bunch is statistically impressive on defense, ranking 9^th in total defensive efficiency. They’re also 15^th in the nation in turnovers forced. I like Purdue’s Final Four chances this year because they seem highly unlikely to suffer a major upset and they can defend so well, even if they’re out-athleted at times.      

Testify – these under-the-radar teams are for real
Pittsburgh
Breakdown: Jamie Dixon’s Panthers came in to the year with little fanfare after losing Sam Young, DeJuan Blair, and Levance Fields to the professional ranks but once again Dixon’s team has taken on the gritty underdog attitude of their coach. They’ve beaten Syracuse and Cincinnati on the road back-to-back and travel to UConn on January 13^th. No one saw the Panthers coming out of that grueling road stretch 2-1, but now they have a shot to emerge 3-0. Ashton Gibbs has stepped up and become a big time playmaker and scorer and I have the utmost confidence in Coach Dixon in big games.

Ohio State
Breakdown: Though they’re off to a 1-3 start in the Big Ten, they have all world swingman Evan Turner returning soon. It remains to be seen how well he’s able to come back, but if he returns to form Ohio State will quickly head back to the upper tier of the Big Ten. He’s one of the few guys who can control a game on his own and I wouldn’t want to be gameplanning against him in March.

Calm Like A Bomb – watch out for these guys in March
Georgia Tech
Breakdown: This list was made even before Tech’s upset of Duke last Saturday, but the Jackets’ big win only validated their spot here. Though hyped freshman Derrick Favors was held to 7 points and 8 boards, Gani Lawal had a 21/9 night and proved to be a legitimate post presence in the ACC. Lawal and Favors are only going to improve and could be the top post duo in the ACC by year’s end. If they can get some consistency out of guards Iman Shumpert and Mfon Udofia, they could make a sweet 16 run. 

Missouri
Breakdown: As Kansas State found out this weekend to the tune of 20 turnovers and 31% from three, Missouri is a team to be reckoned with simply because of their hellacious defense. Mike Anderson’s 40 Minutes of Hell defensive philosophy forces turnovers (Mizzou is tops in the country in forcing them) and creates transition buckets, which is key for a team that does not shoot well from the field. They lack the presence that Demarre Carroll brought them last year, but their grit and sheer will (provided by Kim English, J.T. Tiller, and Zaire Taylor) can make them a stumbling block for any team come March.

Cincinnati
Breakdown: Cincinnati has been a bit of a rollercoaster team so far, but should they get in to the tournament as 9 or 10 seed I wouldn’t want to play them. They’re talented on the wings with Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn, and Yancy Gates is rugged in the paint. The Bearcats could self-destruct in Big East play, or they could really grow up and become a force.

Sleep Now In the Fire – these guys are out of it already or are fading fast
North Carolina
Breakdown: So three of UNC’s four losses are relatively understandable – Syracuse, Texas, and Kentucky are legitimate contenders (though ‘Cuse smacked them by 16 in Chapel Hill). But the recent overtime loss to College of Charleston illustrated the struggles I predicted at the beginning of the year. I didn’t think they could rely on Marcus Ginyard as their wing scorer and sure enough, Ginyard went down and struggled to produce from the guard spots. Losing Ginyard also exposed a defensive deficiency on the perimeter, as C of C hit 13 triples. I didn’t see the combination of Larry Drew, Will Graves, and Dexter Strickland leading the Heels much past the first round in the national tournament either. They do have plenty of size, but John Henson hasn’t impressed anyone, the Wear twins can’t compete against the elite teams yet, and Tyler Zeller isn’t good enough (yet) to be the x-factor. Deon Thompson and Ed Davis are the only guys on that roster who really scare you – and that’s not a recipe for success in March.

Michigan
Breakdown: Michigan was ranked insanely too high (#15) in the preseason rankings and quickly showed their true colors, losing early to Marquette, Alabama, and Boston College. Those three teams are not necessarily pushovers, but they’re teams you must beat to justify tournament-contender status. They also dropped a key game against Indiana (who was playing without leading scorer Maurice Creek). The Wolverines just don’t have any depth, and Manny Harris and Deshawn Sims are forced to carry the load on their own most nights. A two-man show won’t cut it in the competitive Big Ten, much less in the tournament.

Know Your Enemy – these teams are streaky and should be wary of a tournament upset
Kansas State
Breakdown: Up until now, Frank Martin has been known only as the guy who brought in Michael Beasley. K State’s 13-2 start has helped remove that tag from his name, but I’m not sold on what the Wildcats can do when facing Big 12 teams. They don’t have a signature win among those 13 and already dropped their first conference game. In a span of 12 days in January, they’ll play Texas, Oklahoma State, at Baylor, and Kansas. How they do against that Big 12 murderer’s row will show us a lot about the guts of Martin’s squad. Not to be cynical, but my guess is that they don’t hold up.

Villanova
Breakdown: ‘Nova is a team that I really liked at the beginning of the year, but after watching them play I’m a little less confident in their ability to match last year’s tourney run. Initially, I thought having all those guards back, plus bringing in Taylor King, Isaiah Armwood, Mouphtao Yarou, and Malik Wayns, would leave ‘Nova better off than they were last year. But so far, no one on the roster has been able to replace Dante Cunningham and all the things he did for them as an undersized 5-man last year. Antonio Pena just isn’t as talented as Cunningham was, and neither Armwood or Yarou can bring it consistently. Those experienced guards still turn it over too much for my taste, and Scottie Reynolds (as clutch as he may be) can get into the habit of forcing things quite a bit. They’re a balanced offensive team but I think the wrong matchup in terms of size, could do them in early in the tournament.

Butler
Breakdown: Butler is similar to Villanova in that a team who can create mismatches athletically can have success against them. Gordon Hayward is a legitimate star, but when Matt Howard gets in foul trouble (which he’s been in for much of the year) Butler will struggle against top-tier teams. Shelvin Mack is a good complimentary player and a solid lead guard, but after him Zach Hahn, Ronald Nored, and Shawn Vanzant are more specialists who are noticeably lacking in certain key areas. With four losses already and a short-handed Ohio State team as their biggest victory, the Bulldogs’ resume isn’t looking quite as good as past years’.

Guerrila Radio – these teams have ambushed us early on
Syracuse
Breakdown: Wesley Johnson has been a revelation for Jim Boeheim’s squad this year as he’s become “the man” for a team that was looking for a guy like that coming into the season. We were all shocked when ‘Cuse dropped an exhibition game to NCAA DII Le Moyne University, but the Orange promptly came out and defeated then-#12 Cal, #4 UNC, and #11 Florida to put the nerves to rest. Johnson is a player of the year contender, but he’s had plenty of help from Arinze Onuaku and Rick Jackson inside, while Andy Rautins, Scoop Jardine, Brandon Triche, and Kris Joseph make up a never-heard-of-him group of guards and wings that has been solid all year long. Each guy mentioned there is averaging at least 8 points per game, while Johnson chips in almost 9 rebounds, Jackson 7 boards, and Joseph just over 5 as well. They may be an unheralded group, but they’re tough and just as talented as anyone in the top 10.

Basically, Tiger knew what he had become as far as a global icon and role model, and knew that he captured the attention of millions with every move he made. Yet he made decisions that compromised that image, that serenity and his perceived integrity, and he is paying the steep price.

The Connection Between Excellence and Morality and the Deception of A Carefully-Constructed Image
Throughout his saga, we as the media and fans made bad judgments and decisions along the way as well. Initially, we jumped to conclusions about the circumstances surrounding the car accident. The first reports I saw, just hours after the 2:27 a.m. incident, stated that Tiger was hospitalized “serious injuries”. It also said he was lying unconscious in the street, his Escalade was smashed into a fire hydrant and a tree as he was pulling out of his driveway, and apparently we somehow knew that alcohol and drugs/pills were not a factor (which can’t technically be stated as fact until the toxicology report comes back right?) The general assumption was that Tiger was the victim in all of this, even though we couldn’t really explain how he wrecked his Escalade in the wee hours of the morning, coming out of his driveway at less than 35 mph when alcohol or other external factors weren’t involved. Like the rest of us I jumped to conclusions, but mine were that either: a) he was going out to see “someone”; b) he had a fight with his wife and was distraught and trying to leave or c) he indeed was under the influence of drugs or alcohol. In my mind, no one wrecks their car pulling out of the driveway in the middle of the night just going out for a joyride – there had to be other factors that affected the accident.

This is where the connection between excellence and morality, and the deception of a carefully-constructed image come into play. I feel that the media as a whole, before the facts of this all came out, didn’t look at the situation objectively (and I know that in America one is innocent until proven guilty – but as journalists we’re called to look at a situation objectively at all times). The media looked at the fact that Tiger is a model of excellence in his craft and in his work, and assumed he was just as excellent in his personal life. Tiger never did anything wrong on the golf course, and we assumed that behavior carried over to all aspects of his life.

We also were deceived by his carefully constructed image. Some athletes, say Derek Jeter for example, go to great lengths to create an image of class and dignity that reflects their values and principles under the scrutiny of the public eye. In these cases, we can scrutinize and prod all we want, and we find out that these athletes are truly good guys, humble and morally upright.

Other athletes, like Charles Barkley and John Daly, have gone the other way and not presented a front at all. Barkley is really an overweight, opinionated (yet honest and truthful), knucklehead (albeit with a great sense of humor and one-of-a-kind personality) and we love him for it because we know exactly what he’s about after watching him for 10 minutes. If he makes an inflammatory statement (or a statement that, if it were said by almost anyone else would be inflammatory) we just chalk it up to Chuck being Chuck.

But some, as we saw with Tiger, create that image in order to cover up the dirt behind the scenes. When these lives are dissected, the truth is often very different than what we thought. Tiger seemed to be the ultimate family man, with a gorgeous wife and two little kids. He kissed them after tournaments, but really what else did we know about them? Elin rarely talked to the press and he never revealed much about his home life, preferring to keep things private. We didn’t stop to think, ‘wow, he spends the majority of his time either on the road at tournaments or practicing for them, I wonder how he’s able to spend any time with his wife and kids’. We falsely assumed that he was just as excellent in that aspect as he was in his golf game.

Tiger’s Not the Only One
Bill Simmons had an interesting theory in a piece he did one Tiger a few weeks back. He said that Tiger, a kid raised in a serious, strict household who practiced his craft obsessively from a young age, didn’t know how to handle it when he associated with Jordan and Barkley or other high rollers. Simmons said he may have just cut loose too much and never looked back. That theory holds some weight, and it got me thinking that there are quite a few premier, top-of-their-sport, hypercompetitive athletes who have had issues in their personal lives similar to Tiger’s.

Jordan allegedly paid a mistress $250,000 grand to keep quiet, is divorced (his wife received a $168 million settlement – not bad huh?), and always seems to have a different girl on his arm now. We saw at his Hall of Fame induction speech that he’s a jealous man, unforgiving, for the most part ungrateful, and generally not a real nice guy. We didn’t think about this before, again because of the false connection between excellence and morality, but those who knew him intimately said that his speech was a microcosm of who he really is. A friend of my family’s who is involved in collegiate athletics and attended the speech, said it was completely inappropriate given the venue. I agreed and said he should write a book if he wants to take shots at people – the HOF stage is neither the time of the place. Bottom line, he has six rings and a consensus G.O.A.T. title that says more the MJ ever had to. But MJ can’t turn off that hypercompetitive spirit (he got banned from basketball for two years because of his out-of-control gambling – at least that’s what you believe if you’re a Simmons-ite like myself) and that is true when it comes to his personal life.

We’ve seen it with Kobe and Ewing with affairs, Barkley and his gambling, Namath and Chamberlain and plenty of others with their womanizing – sometimes the best of the best can’t “turn it off” when they step off the floor. Athletically, they’re unbelievably competitive and driven and we love it. Their performances were often models of every virtue (hard work, dedication, effort, toughness) that we cherish, yet their personal lives were often different. In the same way that they worked harder and harder at their sport, they were always trying to find that next level off the court or field, whether it is the “better” girl, the higher gambling stakes, or a new experience. I’m not defending these athletes for what they’ve done, but I will say that maybe something deep inside their psyche won’t let them settle, in any aspect of their lives.  

 There are exceptions to this rule too, such as David Robinson, AC Green, and Derek Fisher, and that’s why those athletes who’ve had major issues in their personal lives don’t get a free pass. The Robinsons, Greens, and Fishers of the world have had plenty of women thrown in their direction and had plenty of money to throw around themselves, yet they managed to conduct themselves beyond reproach in those areas of their lives. To me, it makes me realize that those guys deserve a lot more credit and respect than they have ever received.

Finally, I’ll get Vegas’ odds up here as soon as they come out.

Dec 26- Meineke Car Care Bowl: #17 Pittsburgh (9-3) vs. North Carolina (8-4)
Rankings: PITT: O-45, D-26, SOS-28; UNC: O-107, D-6, SOS-10
Best Wins: PITT: vs. South Florida; UNC: @ Virginia Tech
Quick Pick: Pittsburgh: The Panthers are too good to lose three straight to end the season. Expect this one to be close, though.

Dec 26- Emerald Bowl: #24 USC (8-4) vs. Boston College (8-4)
Rankings: USC: O-58, D-42, SOS-39; BC: O-98, D-23, SOS-69
Best Wins: USC: @ Ohio State; BC: vs. Central Michigan
Quick Pick: USC: The Trojans have been inconsistent, but this is still the same team that knocked off Ohio State earlier in the season. BC doesn’t have the offensive punch to take advantage of USC’s defensive shortcomings.

Jan 1- Capital One Bowl: #12 LSU (9-3) vs. #13 Penn State (10-2)
Rankings: LSU: O-108, D-28, SOS-33; PSU: O-36, D-8, SOS-54
Best Wins: LSU: @ Georgia; PSU: @ Michigan State  
Quick Pick: LSU: For the record, I very much dislike both of these teams – neither has done anything to impress me or beaten a team that they shouldn’t have beaten. LSU wins in a low-scoring war of attrition.

Jan 2- Papajohns.com Bowl: South Carolina (7-5) vs. UConn (7-5)
Rankings: SCAR: O-76, D-15, SOS-13; UCONN: O-47, D-72, SOS-18
Best Wins: SCAR: vs. Clemson; UCONN: @ Notre Dame
Quick Pick: South Carolina: Lots of subplots in this one – including Jasper Howard’s death continuing to spur on the Huskies – but the one that may affect them the most is the rumors swirling about coach Randy Edsall bolting for Notre Dame after the season is over. The Gamecocks haven’t been consistent, but they finished the season by thumping Clemson.

Jan 2- AT&T Cotton Bowl: #19 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Ole Miss (8-4)
Rankings: OKST: O-62, D-33, SOS-27; MISS: O-42, D-24, SOS-35
Best Wins: OKST: vs. Georgia; MISS: vs. LSU
Quick Pick: Ole Miss: Both teams have disappointed this season, and both got hammered in their last game. I’ll take Ole Miss behind Dexter McCluster, who’s as dynamic as anyone in the SEC.

Jan 2- AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (7-5) vs. East Carolina (9-4)
Rankings: ARK: O-14, D-90, SOS-2; ECU: O-68, D-75, SOS-55
Best Wins: ARK: vs. Auburn; ECU: vs. Houston
Quick Pick: Arkansas: The Razorbacks hung tough with Florida earlier this season and they played the second-toughest schedule in the country this year. ECU is the Conference USA champion, but will be no match for Arkansas.

Jan 2- Valero Alamo Bowl: Michigan State (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (8-4)
Rankings: MSU: O-41, D-61, SOS-29; TTU: O-7, D-47, SOS-49
Best Wins: MSU: vs. Northwestern; TTU: @ Nebraska
Quick Pick: Texas Tech: Michigan State seemed to get worn out by all those narrow defeats early on and recent player suspensions won’t help a shaky defense against Texas Tech’s wide-open attack.

Jan 5- FedEx Orange Bowl: #9 Georgia Tech (10-2) vs. #10 Iowa (10-2)
Rankings: GTECH: O-11, D-54, SOS-36; IOWA: O-93, D-11, SOS-32
Best Wins: GTECH: vs. Virginia Tech; IOWA: @ Penn State
Quick Pick: Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech has too many athletes for scrappy Iowa to keep in check; Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi may be healthy by then but I don’t think it’ll matter. I’ll be rooting hard for the Hawkeyes, though. 

Jan 6- GMAC Bowl: Central Michigan (11-2) vs. Troy (9-3)
Rankings: CMU: O-32, D-29, SOS-100; TROY: O-3, D-100, SOS-96
Best Wins: CMU: @ Michigan State; TROY: vs. Middle Tennessee State
Quick Pick: CMU:  I really just want to see Dan LeFevour end his spectacular college career with a win and I think he’ll get it against a Troy Trojans (not real clever huh? But I guess it would be weird if they went with something else too) team that beat only one bowl eligible team all year.

Jan 7- BCS National Championship Game: #1 Alabama (13-0) vs. #2 Texas (13-0)
Rankings: ALA: O-35, D-2, SOS-4; TEX: O-20, D-3, SOS-30
Best Wins: ALA: vs. Florida; TEX: vs. Nebraska
Quick Pick: Alabama: Alabama’s win against Florida was undeniably impressive; Texas’ win against Nebraska was, in my opinion, lucky. Alabama’s defense will cripple a Texas offense that relies on Colt McCoy as much as Florida relied on Tim Tebow. I look for Alabama to take away any kind of run game for Texas and then bring pressure when McCoy is forced to throw. He hasn’t been spectacular when he’s been pressured and knocked down this year, so look for ‘Bama to be especially physical. We still have yet to see anyone slow down Mark Ingram either and he’s the catalyst for the ‘Bama offense. QB Greg McElroy is far more effective when Ingram is chewing up yards on the ground.

Alabama rocked Florida 32-12, with Mark Ingram possibly vaulting back into the Heisman lead by turning in a 28 carry, 130 yard, 3 touchdown performance (to go along with 76 yards receiving on just 2 catches). The Tide defense was dominating and the offense just had too many playmakers – Ingram’s backups, Trent Richardson (who I think would probably be a first-round pick if he were to enter the draft this year) and Roy Upchurch, rushed for 80 and 57 yards apiece and averaged over 7 yards per carry. Florida, whose elephant in the room all year had been a disturbing lack of offense outside Tim Tebow, finally was exposed without a Percy Harvin-like threat. Brandon James, Jeff Demps, and Chris Rainey are too small and not physical enough to do damage against ‘Bama’s bludgeoning defense (I like that term by the way, because it just looks like it hurts a little more than usual when a Tide defender hits someone).

Despite the ugly score of that game, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh and Texas/Nebraska turned out to be classics. Though I was not able to catch the former game in its entirety due to a basketball game today, from what I could gather it was simply a matter of who got the ball last. Dion Lewis, Pitt’s freshman stud, lugged the rock an unheard of 47 times. Yes, that is forty-seven times. He piled up 194 yards and 3 touchdowns on those 47 carries, but it was Cincinnati’s Mardy Gilyard who was the catalyst for the Bearcats. His 99-yard kick return touchdown and 5 rec/118 yd/TD performance was the difference. Armon Binns also had 5 catches for 104 yards and the game-winning touchdown catch with 33 seconds to play.

The nightcap of Texas and Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship game lived up to its primetime status. Defense ruled and Nebraska, despite not scoring a touchdown in the game, led 12-10 with just over one minute to play. The key to the entire game was not a spectacular play or blown assignment, but rather a costly Nebraska kickoff that trickled out of bounds, giving Texas the ball on their own 40 yard line with 1:44 to play. Then Colt McCoy found Jordan Shipley over the middle to the Nebraska 41, but Shipley was horse-collared and Texas had the ball on the Nebraska 26. Two plays later, a McCoy pass landed out of bounds with 1 precious second on the clock, leaving Hunter Lawrence a chance to be the hero with a 47 kick for the win. He calmly obliged and snuck the kick just inside the left upright, giving Texas the 13-12 win in dramatic fashion. Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska’s fine defensive tackle (as Musberger would say) was simply dominant, racking up 12 tackles (7 of which resulted in lost yardage) and 4.5 sacks. His physical strength was terrifying at times, as Suh grabbed McCoy or a Texas running back multiple times with just one arm and tossed them to the ground like toys. The most vivid is McCoy taking a designed run up the middle, Suh’s left arm and whole jersey clearly being held by the Texas center, yet reaching out with a massive right arm and vise-gripping McCoy’s upper body and dragging him to the turf. Suh is without a doubt the most dominant force in college football today.

With championship week in the books, here’s what the BCS scenario (by the way, how relieved is Boise State that Texas held on?!) looks like in my opinion (this is written as of 1:11 a.m., pre-BCS selections):

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: TCU vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Orange Bowl: Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

Later tonight, I’ll have a running commentary on the BCS selection show.

Going into championship week, we have a pretty good idea of who will get a BCS bid, but the matter of which game they will play in has a lot of shaking out to do. The Florida/Alabama game is going to be epic – I think it will be one for the ages – but the Big 12 Championship featuring Texas and Nebraska has the most potential to wreck the BCS scenario. Should Nebraska pull off the upset (which I think will absolutely NOT happen, but this is just for argument’s sake) would TCU or Cincinnati be next in line? Does Boise State deserve a shot? Would the loser of the SEC Championship hang on to the number 2 spot? Never mind that all of these scenarios would be solved by a playoff system, but that would be too logical for the NCAA to ever consider. In my opinion (I know the rankings say otherwise) I think Cincinnati deserves a shot at a national title if Texas is to falter.

TCU has been impressive and is probably the best non-major team in the BCS era, but I’ve stuck by Cincy all season. I love their passing game, and having both Tony Pike and Zach Collaros gives them a measure of flexibility at quarterback. On a smaller scale, since Collaros is more of a dual-threat, it allows them to expand the playbook and gives them some degree of mystery when being game-planned against. We all saw how Boise State used trickery and special plays to keep Oklahoma off balance, and Auburn used the same sort of unconventional tactics to shock Alabama in the early going of last week’s game – I call it guerilla football. Cincinnati’s defense is not its strength, so the offense would have to be able to run the ball effectively and be efficient overall.

Here are a couple different scenarios for how this week and the resulting BCS pairings could shake out if there is an upset somewhere this weekend.

Scenario 1
-Nebraska def. Texas; Cincinnati def. Pitt; Florida def. Alabama
BCS: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Alabama vs. TCU
Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Iowa
Orange: Boise State vs. Georgia Tech
This scenario would be my preference if Texas was to get beat by Nebraska. I think Cincinnati has the offensive firepower to put points on the board against Florida’s defense. The game would basically come down to who has the stronger weakness – Florida’s offense or Cincy’s defense. In terms of the other games, Alabama vs. TCU would be interesting, with each team’s strength lying in its defense. I also think the Orange Bowl matchup would be a good one – though pulling viewers might be an issue. Texas could still sneak into the Orange Bowl as well.

Scenario 1A
-Nebraska def. Texas; Cincinnati def. Pitt; Florida def. Alabama
BCS: Florida vs. TCU
Rose: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar: Alabama vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Iowa
Orange: Boise State vs. Georgia Tech
This scenario is how it would most likely play out if Nebraska pulls the upset. I think there would be riots if Alabama got a rematch with Florida so that leaves TCU as the next in line to take a shot at the Gators. Again, it’s a matchup of strength vs. strength for TCU and Florida and would be a huge draw, as it could be billed either as Tim Tebow’s last hurrah or the underdog TCU’s shot at glory. The ‘Bama/Cincy matchup would be electric too.

The Best Scenario
1 Florida vs. 8 Ohio State
2 Alabama vs. 7 Oregon
3 Texas vs. 6 Boise State
4 TCU vs. 5 Cincinnati 
If someone can tell me why this wouldn’t work, I’d like to hear it. The TCU/Cincy debate would be settled right away, Oregon would be the dark horse in this setup, Florida and Ohio State play right off the bat; it’s basically perfect. Oh and there would be one national champion, which is always a plus. (Quick tangent. I wonder if the BCS designers ever said, at any point, “What if there’s a tie for the national championship?” or “What if we have a bunch of undefeated teams?” or “Why are we having machines compute a formula to pick the best teams in the country that some mathematicians can’t even understand, much less your typical college football fan?” or “Hey, that March Madness thing seems to work well” or “Ya know, we’ll have an angry mob calling for our heads if there is a tie for a national championship”. My guess is that their thought process was clouded by dollar signs.)

Heisman Watch-Top 5
1. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas: His performance was utterly dominating and he carried his Longhorns in the clutch like a Heisman winner should. His start to the season was admittedly a little shaky, but his finish has been spectacular and his play – not his name – has made him deserving of the award.
2. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford: The man can run. the. football. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a back so dominating, so powerful, so gritty as Toby Gerhart. His 26 rushing touchdowns speak for themselves and his unique blend of size, speed, and heart make him the best big back since Ron Dayne.
3. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: Tebow put on a show on Senior Day, accounting for five Florida scores and leaving Gainsville in a blaze of glory. It is probably too little too late though in terms of the Heisman race, though there is something to be said for his warrior’s will.
4. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama: The injury really set him back in a week where other stars had dominating performances, but the truth is that he has not been as impressive over the past few weeks as the three guys ahead of him.
5. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: Another game, another impressive box score and win for Boise State. Talk to me in 2010, Kellen

Texas’s vaunted defense looked shaky in a 49-39 win over Texas A&M, but Colt McCoy was undeniably unstoppable, as he at times singlehandedly answered the Aggies scores with clutch plays of his own. McCoy accounted for five touchdowns and totaled 304 yards passing and 175 on the ground (and reminded me a lot of a vintage Steve Young – deceptively fast and throwing darts all over the field). He probably thrust himself into the top spot of the Heisman rankings for most voters, those as I am typing this sentence I’m still debating whether he’ll take over the top spot in my rankings.
But I want to go back to the Longhorns’ D, which couldn’t seem to come up with clutch stops down the stretch and their young secondary was picked on at times by veteran QB Jerrod Johnson. Johnson extended a lot of plays for the Aggies and his scrambling ability cause Texas some problems. It makes me wonder how they’d handle Tim Tebow, who’s tougher to bring down and has more weapons than Johnson does.

At this point, Cincinnati is pulling away from Illinois and the Iron Bowl, featuring Alabama and Auburn, is an hour away. Both of these games seemed a lot more enticing at the beginning of the season, and some even feel that Auburn could give ‘Bama a scare. But the Tide defense has made a mockery of offenses all season and Auburn isn’t about to break that trend. Later tonight, Pittsburgh takes on West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl (always a dangerous game) and Nevada could play a major spoiler role if they find a way to steal a win in Boise against Kellen Moore and the Broncos. A convincing win for Boise State would help, but it still may not be enough to get them a BCS spot, no matter how deserving they may be.

BCS Bowl Projections
BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Texas – Nebraska is the only thing that stands between Texas and the BCS National Championship; the Florida/’Bama showdown will be one for the ages.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon – As long as Oregon doesn’t slip up in the Civil War against Oregon State (no sure thing, by the way), this one is a lock.
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. TCU – Even if TCU wins this game, will they have a legitimate gripe for being co-national champs? I say yes.
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Cincinnati – If Cincinnati wins this game, will they have a legitimate gripe for being co-national champs? Yes, again.
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Iowa – See above for Cincy and TCU. Chaos will ensue either way.

Heisman Watch
1. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas: His performance against Texas A&M was as timely as it was impressive and Mack Brown says McCoy is playing the best football of his career. He needs to follow this up with a big game against Nebraska though.
2. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama: He’s fifth in the country in rushing and cruised for 102 yards and 2 TDs on 11 carries last week against Chattanooga. A massive game today in the Iron Bowl could move him back up into the top spot, as the Heisman race may have officially become a two-horse race.
3. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida: Tebow put up solid numbers against Florida International last week, but he hasn’t done anything to warrant a move into the top two.
4. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State: Week in and week out, Moore gets it done. Efficiency is his thing, and his numbers have been as impressive as anyone’s this year (his 33:3 TD:INT ratio and 168.29 passer rating are the best in the country). He’s probably one quality regular season opponent and one big bowl win away from being a serious contender. He’ll probably top my preseason list in 2010.
5. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson: He didn’t have a huge game last week against Virginia, but has an opportunity to impress in the ACC Championship next week against Georgia Tech. Regardless, Spiller has been one of the best all around players in the country this year. If Clemson was an elite team, we’d really be talking about Spiller as a Heisman candidate.

6. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame: My advice: declare for the draft and start getting paid for playing this well.
7. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford: He’s been an inspiration this year with his grit and toughness.
8. Dion Lewis, RB, Pitt: We’ll be talking about him at the top of this list next year.
9. Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama: People will know him when he suits up on Sundays.
10. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon: Another 2010 candidate; he’s been quietly impressive this year and a little overlooked in my book.